Inflation continues to cool -- albeit at a snail’s pace -- and mortgage rates well above 6% are making it difficult for homebuyers to afford a house.
At its May 3 meeting, the central bank pushed forward with a 25-basis-point (or 0.25%) increase to its target federal funds rate amid its ongoing battle against inflation. While recent inflation data leaves the possibility of another rate hike in June on the table, the Fed has signaled that it’s nearing a level it suspects will be sufficient to bring inflation down.
The most recent Consumer Price Index shows inflation was at 4.9% in April, a slight slowdown from the previous month. While the Fed’s interest rate hikes are working to bring inflation down, it can take months for the effects to fully spread through the economy. As a result, the Fed is unlikely to begin cutting interest rates any time soon. Instead, the central bank is expected to hold rates at their current position for an extended period of time in order to see the cumulative effect on inflation. This means mortgage rates are likely to stay about where they are in the coming months.
“Normally, mortgage rates peak well before the Fed is done hiking. That appears to be true now,” said Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet, a virtual financial planning services company. “Going forward, mortgage rates are going to move more with the outlook for the economy broadly.”
While mortgage rates aren’t forecasted to decrease dramatically any time soon, a pause in rate hikes from the Fed will allow mortgage rates to stabilize and potentially decrease a bit by the end of the year.
“Ultimately, more certainty about the Fed’s actions will help us to smooth out some of the volatility we’ve seen with mortgage rates,” said Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corporation.
Regardless of what mortgage rates do next, it’s always important to compare offers from different lenders to find the lowest rate and most amenable loan terms. Here’s what you need to know about mortgage rates, how they work and how to find the best deal for you.
What to know first
As inflation surged in 2022, mortgage rates followed suit. Though rates have come down a bit since then, they remain roughly twice what they were a year ago. In recent weeks, rates have been fluctuating in the 6% range.
Since last March, the Federal Reserve has hiked its benchmark federal funds rate 10 times -- bringing it from zero to 5.25%. Rate hikes and rate cuts are the central bank’s primary tool to rein in or encourage economic growth.
To bring inflation down, the central bank has increased the cost of borrowing money across the board. By making it more expensive to borrow money via higher interest rates, the goal is to curb consumer spending.
Mortgage rates, which aren’t directly set by the Fed, will likely continue to move up and down on a weekly basis. But the long-term trajectory of interest rates will depend on current and predicted inflation as well as the broader economic outlook. In addition to inflation, wage growth, lessened stress from the banking sector and the potential for a US debt ceiling default will continue to be major factors in the trajectory of mortgage rates.
If inflation continues to inch closer to its 2% target and the Fed is able to pause its rate increases, mortgage rates may stabilize or even decrease. If future inflation data are higher than expected, mortgage rates will increase in response.
While mortgage rates are unlikely to return to the pre-pandemic lows of around 2% and 3%, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage may fall close to 5.7% by year-end, according to the most recent housing forecast from Fannie Mae.
“All in all, consumers thinking about buying or refinancing should expect to encounter a tough market where rates remain steep and where homes are expensive,” said Jacob Channel, senior economist at loan marketplace LendingTree. “That said, if you do want to buy, know that it’s definitely doable, especially if you’re willing to save up extra for a down payment, work on your credit score and shop around to compare lenders and find the lowest possible rate on your mortgage,” he added.
What is a mortgage rate?
Your mortgage rate is the percentage of interest a lender charges for providing the loan you need to buy a home. The interest helps cover the costs associated with lending money -- and there are multiple factors that determine the rate you’re offered. Some are specific to you and your financial situation and others are influenced by macro market conditions, such as the overall level of demand for loans in your area or nationwide.
What factors determine my mortgage rate?
While the broader economy plays a key role in mortgage rates, there are some key factors under your control that impact your rate.
- Your credit score: Lenders will offer the lowest available rates to borrowers with excellent credit scores, of 740 and above. Lower credit scores are deemed greater risks for the potential of default, so lenders will charge higher rates to compensate.
- Your down payment: Your down payment affects your loan-to-value ratio. For example, if you’re making a down payment of $50,000 on a house that costs $500,000, you have a loan-to-value ratio of 90%. As a broad rule, lenders will offer lower rates if you can lower the loan-to-value ratio. For example, a borrower putting down just 3% of the purchase price will likely pay a higher rate than a borrower who puts down 25% of the purchase price.
- The loan term: The most common mortgage is a 30-year fixed-rate loan, which spreads your payments over three decades. Shorter loans such as 15-year mortgages have lower rates. However, the payments will be bigger because you’ll only have half the time to pay back the money.
- The loan type: The loan type will impact your interest rate. Some loans have a fixed interest rate for the entire life of the loan, while others have an adjustable rate -- which could result in significantly higher payments down the road.
- The property’s location: If you’re buying a home in an area where the rate of foreclosure has been higher, lenders may take that into consideration with your mortgage.
Current mortgage and refinance rates
What are today’s mortgage rates?
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.91% with an APR of 6.93%. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate is 6.27% with an APR of 6.31%. The average 5/1 adjustable-rate mortgage is 5.79% with an APR of 7.46%, according to Bankrate’s latest survey of the nation’s largest mortgage lenders.
Current mortgage rates
| Product | Interest rate | APR |
|---|---|---|
| 30-year fixed-rate | 6.94% | 6.96% |
| 30-year fixed-rate FHA | 6.15% | 7.07% |
| 30-year fixed-rate VA | 6.32% | 6.43% |
| 30-year fixed-rate jumbo | 6.99% | 7.01% |
| 20-year fixed-rate | 6.84% | 6.87% |
| 15-year fixed-rate | 6.27% | 6.30% |
| 15-year fixed-rate jumbo | 6.36% | 6.37% |
| 5/1 ARM | 5.77% | 7.45% |
| 5/1 ARM jumbo | 5.67% | 7.38% |
| 7/1 ARM | 6.47% | 7.35% |
| 7/1 ARM jumbo | 6.68% | 7.25% |
| 10/1 ARM | 6.73% | 7.28% |
| 30-year fixed-rate refinance | 7.07% | 7.09% |
| 30-year fixed-rate FHA refinance | 6.23% | 7.15% |
| 30-year fixed-rate VA refinance | 6.39% | 6.60% |
| 30-year fixed-rate jumbo refinance | 7.15% | 7.16% |
| 20-year fixed-rate refinance | 7.00% | 7.03% |
| 15-year fixed-rate refinance | 6.34% | 6.37% |
| 15-year fixed-rate jumbo refinance | 6.40% | 6.42% |
| 5/1 ARM refinance | 5.71% | 7.31% |
| 5/1 ARM jumbo refinance | 5.64% | 7.08% |
| 7/1 ARM refinance | 6.38% | 7.37% |
| 7/1 ARM jumbo refinance | 6.59% | 7.27% |
| 10/1 ARM refinance | 6.79% | 7.32% |
We use information collected by Bankrate, which is owned by the same parent company as CNET, to track daily mortgage rate trends. The above table summarizes the average rates offered by lenders across the country.
What is ‘annual percentage rate’ and what does it mean for mortgages?
The annual percentage rate, or APR, represents the true cost of your loan by factoring in the interest rate and other costs such as lender fees or prepaid points. So, while you might be tempted to see an offer for “interest rates as low as 6.5%” it’s important to look at the APR instead to see how much you’re really paying.
Pros and cons of getting a mortgage
Pros
You’ll build equity in the property instead of paying rent with no ownership stake.
You’ll build your credit by making on-time payments.
You’ll be able to deduct the interest on the mortgage on your annual tax bill.
Cons
You’ll take on a sizable chunk of debt.
You’ll pay more than the list price -- potentially a lot more over the course of a 30-year loan -- due to interest charges.
You’ll have to budget for closing costs to close the mortgage, which add up to tens of thousands of dollars in some states.
How does the APR affect principal and interest?
Most mortgage loans are based on an amortization schedule: You’ll pay the same amount each month for the life of the loan even though the generated interest will be highest at the beginning of the loan and will taper as the principal decreases. (Your amortization schedule will show how much of your monthly payment goes to interest and how much pays down the principal of the loan.) Ultimately, most borrowers appreciate the convenience of a fixed, predictable monthly payment.
Shopping mortgage rates
Mortgage lenders often publish online their rates for different mortgage types, which can help you research and narrow down which lenders you apply to for preapproval. Shopping around is an important part of the process. And it’s often a mistake to rush the process.
FAQs
Most conventional loans require a credit score of 620 or higher, but Federal Housing Administration and other loan types may accommodate lenders with scores as low as 500, depending on your down payment. If you have a high credit score, you may be offered a lower interest rate and more modest down payment. Improving your credit score before applying for a mortgage can save you money even if you already qualify for a loan.
“Credit is the biggest factor in interest rates on both mortgages and all other lending products, so making sure credit balances are below 30% is key to maximizing a credit score,” says Lotz. “If a person finds errors on their credit report, they should dispute them to ensure the most accurate history.”
Your credit score isn’t the only factor that impacts your mortgage rate. Lenders will also look at your debt-to-income ratio to assess your level of risk based on the other debts you’re paying back such as student loans, car payment and credit cards. Additionally, your loan-to-value ratio plays a key role in your mortgage rate. A larger down payment will reduce your loan-to-value ratio, which lenders like to see.
However, you don’t want to stretch so far with your down payment that you are left without cash reserves when you move into your home, and keeping some liquid savings may help your lender’s confidence in your ability to pay back the loan, potentially lowering your rate.
A rate lock protects you if mortgage rates rise between the time you’re preapproved and the time you actually close on the house. For example, if you lock in a rate at 6.5% today and your lender’s rates climb to 7.25% over the next 30 days, you still get the lower rate. Rate locks don’t last forever, though. A common rate-lock period is 45 days, so you’re still on a tight timeline. Be sure to ask lenders about rate lock windows and the cost to secure your rate.
Mortgage rates are always moving, and it’s impossible to predict the market. However, all signs point to an additional uptick in mortgage rates due to the Federal Reserve’s efforts to fight inflation in the short term. There’s some good news on the horizon, though. Fannie Mae’s forecast calls for 30-year mortgage rates to fall as low as 5.7% by the end of 2023.
